An Evolutionary Opinion Dynamics Model of Political Activism Informed by Survey Data:

The seminar presents a political opinion dynamics model based on survey data, designed to analyze activism, with a specific application to the 2022 protests in Panama. These protests were notable for the unification of diverse social sectors, driven by widespread dissatisfaction with government corruption, rising living costs, and rights violations in Indigenous territories—resulting in an unusually cohesive protest movement in the Panamanian context. The model integrates social network analysis and topic modeling to identify dominant themes in public discourse on Twitter in Panama, revealing increasing polarization and the role of both traditional and emerging media. It also incorporates evolutionary game theory and network theory, examining how strategic decision-making and homophily—the tendency of individuals to associate with like-minded peers—shape the formation and persistence of opinions. Finally, the seminar details how real-world data are incorporated, considering demographic and geographic factors, and using survey data to simulate social dynamics and predict mobilization outcomes in specific contexts. The model offers practical applications for civil society organization and evidence-based strategies for social change, grounded in public opinion dynamics and network analysis.